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Re: Horoscopes
Posted By: Kaz!, on host 142.59.88.221
Date: Sunday, October 20, 2002, at 16:19:51
In Reply To: Re: Horoscopes posted by uselessness on Sunday, October 20, 2002, at 15:00:49:

>>But there are plenty of people who get hooked on this stuff, because it's right... every time. And I think there's more than just something psychological going on to make them come true.

I find that I have to disagree with this, in that I believe that it's very easy to explain how such things can be based merely in psychology. I don't read horoscopes all that much, but every so often I'll read a few just for the fun of it; I do find them a bit on the interesting side, even though I don't believe in them (and certainly don't let them contol my life at all).

One thing that I find about all horoscopes is that they all tend to be extremely vague in nature. As in, you're never going to find a horoscope that says anything specific like "On Tuesday afternoon at 3:46pm your second best friend Joe Smhoe will give you a really cool present in pink wrapping paper that will turn out to be that limited edition cheezy-doodle spraycan that you always wanted, which will make you poing happily for the next 17 minutes and 32.83 seconds afterwards" or anything like that. Instead, you're going to find stuff a lot more along the lines of "One of your friends will make you very happy this week". Obviously, with a vague statement such as that there are a multitude of things that would satisfy that requirement.

Also, I find it important to note the psychological effect that strongly believing something has in the mind. If the mind believes something is going to happen, then the person has a confimation bias: a desire to see events and evidence in a way that would confirm their previous beliefs. Also, they may attempt to do things that would provide evidence for their beliefs. Going back to the "One of your friends will make you very happy this week" example, anything that any friend does that makes you even a little bit happy could be used as supportive evidence. Also, if for some reason that doesn't happen, you may go out of your way to *make* something happen by inviting one of them over or somesuch. With a confimation bias, it really isn't that difficult to find evidence for a vague claim.

I mean, I suppose that I could be wrong in all of this... but I've found the explanation to work fairly well, by and far. And it seems much more likely to me then bringing anything supernatural into the picture. Then again, I'm not much for the supernatural anyway.

-Ka"Wow, I haven't posted here in a long time, have I? At least I've been keeping up with all the messages"z!

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