An update.

> I'm thinking the following Best Picture list is likely:
>
> The Two Towers
> Far From Heaven
> Gangs of New York

I'm not calling Far From Heaven a definite anymore, even though my instincts scream that this is solid Oscar material, and, despite defeat at the Globes, is still showing better with critic's awards than any other film this year.

Meanwhile, both "Chicago" and "The Hours" are looking pretty secure. The Golden Globe winner for Best Dramatic Picture has an excellent track record for predicting the Oscar Best Picture winner (although I think that otherwise the Oscar-predictive value of the Globes is overrated), and that puts "The Hours" in. "Chicago" won the Globe for Best Comedy/Musical Picture, which often doesn't even guarantee an Oscar *nomination*. But in this case, with Chicago's Oscar buzz running high already, I suspect it's in.

That leaves About Schmidt, Adaptation, Far From Heaven, and The Pianist fighting for the last slot (I'm calling Minority Report out). That's a lot of competition, and suddenly not even Gangs or Rings seem as secure as I thought they were. Antwone Fisher is also a much-considered candidate, but I don't see it, myself.

For Best Actor, I see the ultimate battle being between Jack Nicholson and Daniel Day Lewis. For Best Actress, Nicole Kidman for The Hours vs. Julianne Moore for Far From Heaven. The cosmic irony here is that Julianne Moore could also get a Best Supporting Actress nomination for...The Hours. She'll lose to Catherine Zeta-Jones, though.

Adaptation's strongest category, I think, was Best Adapted Screenplay, but About Schmidt took the Screenplay Globe home, and that would be competing in the Adapted category. Stiff competition.