> I know the coin's skewed, but I don't know which way, so I think it's 50/50 that I'll get a head. I do get a head. In my simple way, that corresponds to 100% probability that I'll get a head on the second coin-toss. However, I have to balance that with my original 50% estimate. The easiest way to do that is to average the two out, which comes to 75% probability. So, before the second toss I'm 75% sure that I'll get a head. I toss the coin for the second time and get a head. Using the same logic as before, my reckoning of the outcome for the third toss is now 75 + 12.5 = 87.5% in favour of heads. Taking this onwards...

First you guess that you'll be 99% sure about the 99th toss, because gremlinn said the puzzle wasn't too tough.

Then you suppose that, of the next two flips, one will probably be heads and other tails. You flip, and it comes out heads. Then you repeat this paragraph.

Prior to first: 1/2 chance.
After first: 2/3 chance.
After second: 3/4 chance.
...
After 98th: 99/100 chance.

Then you read gremlinn's answer and think your answer doesn't make any sense, even though it works.

Ga"better at intuiting math than reasoning it"be