> Every year, there is one critically-acclaimed movie that, for some reason, I resent and tend to root against, even though I am fully cognizant that this is not a rational or informed tendency. Far From Heaven is the movie that earns that dubious honor this year. [...] I suppose I'll see Far From Heaven eventually, and when I do I won't let irrational prejudice sway my opinion. But for right now, I'm annoyed that it's such a lock for everything. The Academy has just got to break out of its infatuation with arty social dramas. And a Sirk lookalike movie that deals with taboo issues explicitly instead of implicitly merely evokes a "What's the point?" reaction in me. I'll take the Billy Wilder lookalike that deals with taboo issues explicitly, American Beauty, and call it good, thanks.

Well, just so long as you realize it's irrational. :-) I don't think it's a "lock for everything", though; although it has good odds for Picture, Director, and quite a few other categories, I don't think it has a complete lock on much aside from Actress and a few technicals like Art Direction and Costumes.

I don't think it's unreasonable to not look forward to a well-reviewed movie. There are plenty of critically acclaimed movies that I have little desire to see; for me, it's "The Two Towers" (though that's based primarily on my dislike of the first installment).

>> > I will point out one Picture possibility that you've overlooked: "My Big Fat Greek Wedding".
>
> Good point. It does have a very good chance. But how come I haven't heard a word of Oscar-related buzz about it?

Not many people are predicting it, it's true. This and the Vardalos nom are my "out on a limb" picks, which I may well retract by the time I make my final calls. I'm predicting it solely based on past Academy history; it's the *type* of movie that it normally puts in the fifth Picture slot, it has enormous goodwill, it made zillions of dollars, and it has a sizable Academy voting bloc (mainly older) who will put it on their ballots, whereas a lot of the arty films (Pianist, Far From Heaven, etc) will be gunning amongst each other. At least that's my reasoning.