Re: Voting
wintermute, on host 195.153.64.90
Friday, July 13, 2001, at 02:14:52
Re: Voting posted by wintermute on Tuesday, July 10, 2001, at 06:27:22:
> The test run (ERM) that was trialled in 1992 wiped over £3bn off the British economy in a matter of hours. This was not a freak occurrence, but had been predicted by many economists, both in Britain and around the world. Far larger losses are being predicted if we enter the Euro proper.
I did a little research last night, and I thought I would expand the point a little, if no-one objects.
You don't? Good.
Back in 1992, The EEC went live with the Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM) to test the possibility of a single European currency. During this test, on Wednesday 16th September at approximately 11am, the Italian Lira flushed itself down the toilet, as it does every so often.
Germany and Britain promptly started bailing out Italy. At this point, it would be impolite of me to mention Germany's previous record on European integration, but I will point out that they were the strongest proponants of the ERM and are now the strongest proponants of the Euro. It may or may not be relevant that the bank that controls these systems is located in Stuttgart and is regulated under German law.
Anyway, back to the story. Germany, in enlightened self-interest decides to stop throwing good Marks after bad Lira, and pulls out of the rescue operation, leaving Britain as the only country doing what all of Europe promised it would.
At 4pm, we officially left the ERM, having lost £20bn, and had the biggest interest hikes in 250 years. The only people who profited from this were a couple of US currency speculators who were Bill Gates rich by the end of the day.
This day quickly entered history as "Black Wednesday".
With the Euro, the effects won't be so severe, and nor will they be borne by a single country, but nontheless, many similar but smaller events will happen, and each time Europe as a whole will become poorer. The sheer number of these collapses will quickly cause snowballs (as an attept to bail out the Drachma causes a run on the Lira, for example). As I'm sure you can see, This will not be good for Europe as a whole.
In addition, if the Treaty of Nice is ratified, more countries will be able to join the Euro Economic Zone. Most of the countries under consideration are Eastern European, and have currencies that make the Italian Lira look solid. This will accelerate the effects detailed above.
I found out recently that the biggest supporter of the Euro outside of Europe is Fidel Castro, who wants an economic bloc as powerful as the US Dollar, that doesn't have sanctions against Cuba. Not that that's relevant. I was just suprised by it.
winter"Thank you for your patience"mute
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